Auestadion · Analysis updated 06:41 UTC
Hessen Kassel vs FSV Mainz 05 II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.15 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Hessen Kassel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hessen Kassel win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hessen Kassel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hessen Kassel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.43 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.15 for FSV Mainz 05 II, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Hessen Kassel
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-1 (W)
FSV Mainz 05 II
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 19 | 26 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Kickers Offenbach | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | SV Sandhausen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Eintracht Trier | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hessen Kassel win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.