Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hessen Kassel and 2.63 for SGV Freiberg, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SGV Freiberg win

65.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.34 – 2.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hessen Kassel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SGV Freiberg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 18% / 17% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Hessen Kassel and 2.63 for SGV Freiberg, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hessen Kassel win18%

Draw17%

SGV Freiberg win65%

Double chance 1X

35%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

1–28.8%
1–37.7%
1–16.7%
0–26.5%
2–25.9%

Recent form

Hessen Kassel

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-1 (W)

SGV Freiberg

2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	13	7	6	0	19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	8	3	2	12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	7	5	1	13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	6	3	4	6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	13	5	5	3	1	20
8	SV Sandhausen	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	4	5	3	5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	3	4	6	-2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	2	5	6	-13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	3	2	8	-13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	13	1	7	5	-7	10
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	2	3	8	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.