Hessen Kassel vs VfR Mannheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.78 for VfR Mannheim, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives VfR Mannheim the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hessen Kassel home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfR Mannheim away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfR Mannheim to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.78 for VfR Mannheim, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hessen Kassel win32%

Draw23%

VfR Mannheim win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.0%
2–17.5%
0–16.9%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Hessen Kassel

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-1 (W)

VfR Mannheim

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	11	6	5	0	16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	6	3	2	9	21
3	Kickers Offenbach	11	6	2	3	7	20
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	VfR Mannheim	10	4	5	1	7	17
6	Freiburg II	10	4	4	2	6	16
7	TSV Steinbach	11	4	4	3	4	16
8	FC 08 Homburg	11	4	4	3	0	16
9	SV Sandhausen	11	4	4	3	-2	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	5	1	5	-4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	2	4	5	-3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	3	1	7	-11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	10	2	3	5	-12	9
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	1	5	5	-7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	1	3	7	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.