Hestrafor vs Kongahälla Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Hestrafor and 1.49 for Kongahälla, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Hestrafor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hestrafor win

57.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.40 – 1.49

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kongahälla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hestrafor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Hestrafor and 1.49 for Kongahälla, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Hestrafor win58%

Draw19%

Kongahälla win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.8%
1–17.3%
3–17.0%
2–26.5%
2–05.9%

Recent form

Hestrafor

Kongahälla

2026-09-24T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Lindome · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Astrio · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Landvetter IS · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Hestrafor 1-3 Kongahälla (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
2026-06-17T17:30:00.000Z · Hestrafor 3-0 Kongahälla (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	26	19	3	4	25	60
2	Dalstorps	26	15	7	4	26	52
3	Jonsered	26	12	6	8	1	42
4	Hestrafor	26	12	5	9	6	41
5	Västra Frölunda	26	11	7	8	6	40
6	Qviding FIF	26	12	4	10	3	40
7	Böljan	26	10	7	9	4	37
8	Lindome	26	11	4	11	2	37
9	Torslanda	26	9	7	10	-1	34
10	Onsala	26	9	6	11	-4	33
11	Kongahälla	26	8	6	12	-9	30
12	Åstorp	26	8	5	13	-9	29
13	Galtabacks	26	6	5	15	-10	23
14	Astrio	26	2	4	20	-40	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hestrafor win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.