Hetman Zamosc vs Chełmianka Chełm Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Hetman Zamosc and 1.43 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Chełmianka Chełm the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chełmianka Chełm win

52.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hetman Zamosc home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chełmianka Chełm away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chełmianka Chełm to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Hetman Zamosc and 1.43 for Chełmianka Chełm, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hetman Zamosc win20%

Draw27%

Chełmianka Chełm win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.8%
1–112.2%
0–211.2%
0–011.1%
1–28.7%

Recent form

Hetman Zamosc

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Kraków II · 3-3 (D)

Chełmianka Chełm

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-18T09:00:00.000Z · Hetman Zamosc 1-2 Chełmianka Chełm (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-05-28T16:00:00.000Z · Hetman Zamosc 0-4 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)
2020-11-25T12:00:00.000Z · Hetman Zamosc 2-7 Chełmianka Chełm (III Liga - Group 4)

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chełmianka Chełm win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.