· Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Hetman Zamosc and 1.47 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Hetman Zamosc the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hetman Zamosc win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hetman Zamosc home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Czarni Połaniec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hetman Zamosc to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Hetman Zamosc and 1.47 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 1–06.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Hetman Zamosc
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KSZO 1929 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Kraków II · 3-3 (D)
Czarni Połaniec
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Busko-Zdroj · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hetman Zamosc win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.