Wanderers Grounds · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.25 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives HFX Wanderers FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HFX Wanderers FC win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HFX Wanderers FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Ottawa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
HFX Wanderers FC
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Atlético Ottawa
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-01T20:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-3 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 2-0 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-05T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 2-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-06-02T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 2-2 Atlético Ottawa (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HFX Wanderers FC win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.