HFX Wanderers FC vs Forge Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 2.18 for Forge, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Forge the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Forge win

53.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HFX Wanderers FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Forge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

HFX Wanderers FC win26%

Draw21%

Forge win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–29.0%
1–18.3%
2–26.7%
1–36.5%
2–16.2%

Recent form

HFX Wanderers FC

2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)

Forge

2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T21:10:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-02T22:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-0 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2026-06-10T23:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2026-05-09T20:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-4 Forge (Canadian Championship)
2026-05-02T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-3 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2025-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-1 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2025-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2025-06-08T19:30:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2025-05-07T23:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-3 Forge (Canadian Championship)
2025-05-03T20:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-0 Forge (Canadian Premier League)
2024-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 3-0 Forge (Canadian Premier League)

Canadian Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	26	16	6	4	32	54
2	Forge	26	16	6	4	26	54
3	Atlético Ottawa	26	13	4	9	-1	43
4	Vancouver FC	26	9	7	10	2	34
5	Supra du Quebec	26	9	5	12	-7	32
6	HFX Wanderers FC	26	7	7	12	-4	28
7	York United	26	6	9	11	-21	27
8	Pacific FC	26	2	8	16	-27	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Forge win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.