Wanderers Grounds · Analysis updated 07:00 UTC
HFX Wanderers FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.10 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Vancouver FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HFX Wanderers FC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–27.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 56.6% vs market 40.8%, edge +15.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 40.8% | 56.6% | 1.77 | +15.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.0% | 63.5% | 1.57 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.62 | 33.7% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 36.8% | 36.5% | 2.74 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.4% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.6% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 43.4% | 2.30 | -15.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
HFX Wanderers FC
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 3-4 (L)
Vancouver FC
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-04T23:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-3 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-08-04T19:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 2-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-05T19:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 3-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-06-23T23:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 4-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-04-19T02:00:00.000Z · HFX Wanderers FC 0-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.