Sportpark de Boshoek · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
HHC vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for HHC and 0.86 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives HHC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HHC win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HHC home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barendrecht away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.40 (model 52.4% vs market 38.5%, edge +13.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.40 | 38.5% | 52.4% | 1.91 | +13.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 81.0% | 81.7% | 1.22 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 76.5% | 1.31 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 23.5% | 23.5% | 4.26 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.3% | 5.46 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.3% | 58.2% | 1.72 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 43.1% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 61.5% | 47.6% | 2.10 | -13.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
HHC
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Ijsselmeervogels · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Quick Boys · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barendrecht · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kozakken Boys · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · A vs AFC Amsterdam · 2-2 (D)
Barendrecht
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs HHC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · HHC 0-1 Barendrecht (KNVB Beker)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · HHC 3-1 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2026-01-17T13:30:00.000Z · HHC 1-4 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2025-08-23T12:30:00.000Z · HHC 3-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2025-01-11T13:30:00.000Z · HHC 3-1 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2024-08-17T12:30:00.000Z · HHC 1-2 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2019-03-02T14:30:00.000Z · HHC 2-1 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2018-09-29T13:30:00.000Z · HHC 4-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2018-02-03T14:30:00.000Z · HHC 3-1 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
- 2017-10-28T13:30:00.000Z · HHC 0-0 Barendrecht (Tweede Divisie)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HHC win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.