Easter Road · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Hibernian vs Aberdeen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hibernian and 0.90 for Aberdeen, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Hibernian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hibernian win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hibernian home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aberdeen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 52.6% vs market 43.0%, edge +9.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 52.6% | 1.90 | +9.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.6% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.6% | 78.8% | 1.27 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 46.0% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.70 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 4.00 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.4% | 21.2% | 4.72 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 75.0% | 1.33 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 47.4% | 2.11 | -9.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hibernian
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)
Aberdeen
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-1 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-0 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-10-26T14:30:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-1 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2025-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-0 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 3-1 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-11-26T19:45:00.000Z · Hibernian 3-3 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-05-12T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-4 Aberdeen (Premiership)
- 2024-02-17T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-2 Aberdeen (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hibernian win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.