Easter Road · Analysis updated 20:44 UTC
Hibernian vs Celtic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.67 expected goals for Hibernian and 1.93 for Celtic, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Celtic win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
0.67 – 1.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hibernian home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Celtic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.3%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–38.8%
Recent form
Hibernian
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)
Celtic
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Motherwell · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-2 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2026-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-2 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-0 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-2 Celtic (FA Cup)
- 2025-02-22T12:30:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-3 Celtic (Premiership)
- 2024-08-18T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-3 Celtic (League Cup)
- 2024-08-11T11:30:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-2 Celtic (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celtic win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.