Easter Road · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Hibernian vs Falkirk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hibernian and 0.86 for Falkirk, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Hibernian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hibernian win
53.3% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hibernian home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Falkirk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.7% vs market 45.8%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 45.1% | 46.7% | 2.14 | +1.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 53.2% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.6% | 25.7% | 3.89 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 79.0% | 79.0% | 1.27 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.33 | 21.3% | 21.0% | 4.76 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.8% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hibernian
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)
Falkirk
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 3-1 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-4 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2025-12-06T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 3-0 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2025-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-2 Falkirk (Premiership)
- 2022-07-12T18:45:00.000Z · Hibernian 0-1 Falkirk (League Cup)
- 2017-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Falkirk (Championship)
- 2016-12-31T12:30:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Falkirk (Championship)
- 2016-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 1-1 Falkirk (Championship)
- 2016-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-1 Falkirk (Championship)
- 2016-04-12T18:45:00.000Z · Hibernian 2-2 Falkirk (Championship)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hibernian win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.