Easter Road · Referee D. Nicolson · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Hibernian vs Partick Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Hibernian and 1.07 for Partick, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Hibernian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hibernian home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Partick away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hibernian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Hibernian and 1.07 for Partick, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Hibernian
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-2 (L)
Partick
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Inverness CT · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.