· Analysis updated 15:17 UTC
Hiiumaa vs Nõmme United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Hiiumaa and 1.53 for Nõmme United, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Hiiumaa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hiiumaa win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hiiumaa home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nõmme United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hiiumaa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Hiiumaa and 1.53 for Nõmme United, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Hiiumaa
- 2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tulevik · 4-1 (W)
- 2025-07-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 0-3 (L)
- 2024-10-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna FC Zapoos · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Helios · 3-1 (W)
Nõmme United
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paide · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Flora Tallinn · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalju Nomme · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vaprus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vaprus · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hiiumaa win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.