· Analysis updated 00:58 UTC
Hilden vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Hilden and 2.02 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Rot-weiss Oberhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rot-weiss Oberhausen win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hilden home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-weiss Oberhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 21% / 21% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Hilden and 2.02 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 0–28.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–36.7%
Recent form
Hilden
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Westfalia Rhynern · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergisch Gladbach · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Köln II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bochum II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 3-0 (W)
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Bocholt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund II | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 34 |
| 2 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 31 |
| 3 | FC Gutersloh | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 26 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Köln II | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Westfalia Rhynern | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Schalke 04 II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Hilden | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | Bonner SC | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | FC Bocholt | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Bergisch Gladbach | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 17 |
| 13 | Bochum II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -19 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rot-weiss Oberhausen win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.