Helsingor Stadion · Referee P. Gammelholm · Analysis updated 02:40 UTC
Hillerød vs FC Fredericia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hillerød and 1.98 for FC Fredericia, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives FC Fredericia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Fredericia win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hillerød home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Fredericia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–36.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 2.20 | 42.4% | 44.9% | 2.23 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.40 | 39.6% | 40.3% | 2.48 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 59.4% | 59.7% | 1.68 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 21.2% | 21.4% | 4.67 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.17 | 81.2% | 81.1% | 1.23 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 4.60 | 19.4% | 18.9% | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.2% | 78.6% | 1.27 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 55.1% | 1.81 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hillerød
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvidovre · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Fredericia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AB Copenhagen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanløse · 1-2 (L)
FC Fredericia
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hobro · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hillerød · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolding IF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 2-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2024-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 0-3 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-10-20T17:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 1-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-08-11T16:30:00.000Z · Hillerød 2-3 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-05-26T16:30:00.000Z · Hillerød 0-4 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 1-2 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2023-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 2-0 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
- 2022-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · Hillerød 2-1 FC Fredericia (1. Division)
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Fredericia win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.