Yunist Stadium · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Hirnyk-Sport vs Kolos Kovalivka II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hirnyk-Sport and 1.64 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Kolos Kovalivka II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hirnyk-Sport home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolos Kovalivka II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Hirnyk-Sport and 1.64 for Kolos Kovalivka II, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Hirnyk-Sport
- 2026-05-22T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Trostianets · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-10T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-01T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Penuel · 2-3 (L)
Kolos Kovalivka II
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Oleksandria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Probiy Horodenka · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kulykiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv Kyiv · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.