Bolt Arena · Referee Joona Kontinen, Finland · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
HJK Helsinki vs FF Jaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.95 for FF Jaro, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives HJK Helsinki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HJK Helsinki win
51.3% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HJK Helsinki home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FF Jaro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
HJK Helsinki
- 2026-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs VPS · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gnistan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Turku · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Turku · 0-1 (L)
FF Jaro
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lahti · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mariehamn · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Oulu · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 3-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2026-06-13T14:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 5-2 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2025-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 2-3 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2025-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 3-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2015-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 1-1 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2015-06-22T15:30:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 4-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2015-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 3-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2014-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 4-1 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2014-06-08T15:30:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 2-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
- 2014-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · HJK Helsinki 1-0 FF Jaro (Veikkausliiga)
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -26 | 14 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 52 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 48 |
| 3 | KuPS | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | AC Oulu | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 37 |
| 1 | Lahti | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 36 |
| 2 | Ilves | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 35 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -27 | 20 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -27 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HJK Helsinki win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.