Bolt Arena · Analysis updated 06:03 UTC
HJK W vs Åland United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for HJK W and 1.88 for Åland United W, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives HJK W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HJK W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Åland United W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.8%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–34.8%
Recent form
HJK W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs HPS W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Brann W · 0-2 (L)
Åland United W
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Gnistan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs HPS W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HJK W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · HJK W 2-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2026-06-12T16:00:00.000Z · HJK W 3-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2026-04-02T16:00:00.000Z · HJK W 3-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · HJK W 2-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · HJK W 6-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-07-06T12:00:00.000Z · HJK W 9-1 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2025-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · HJK W 0-0 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-10-18T15:15:00.000Z · HJK W 3-0 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-10-02T15:30:00.000Z · HJK W 1-2 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · HJK W 6-3 Åland United W (Kansallinen Liiga)
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.