Bolt Arena · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
HJK W vs Ilves W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.86 expected goals for HJK W and 0.92 for Ilves W, a combined total of 3.79. That distribution gives HJK W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HJK W win
77.1% probability
Expected goals
2.86 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HJK W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HJK W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.86 goals for HJK W and 0.92 for Ilves W, a combined 3.79 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 57%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.3%
- 3–08.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
HJK W
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Åland United W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs HPS W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Brann W · 0-2 (L)
Ilves W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HJK W win, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.