· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
HJS Akatemia W vs PK-35 Vantaa W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for HJS Akatemia W and 1.65 for PK-35 Vantaa W, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives HJS Akatemia W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HJS Akatemia W win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HJS Akatemia W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PK-35 Vantaa W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HJS Akatemia W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for HJS Akatemia W and 1.65 for PK-35 Vantaa W, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.7%
Recent form
HJS Akatemia W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EBK W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JyPK W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 Vantaa W · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 4-3 (W)
PK-35 Vantaa W
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs VIFK W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EBK W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Honka W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs HJS Akatemia W · 10-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JyPK W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · HJS Akatemia W 1-3 PK-35 Vantaa W (Kansallinen Liiga)
Kansallinen Liiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK W | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 39 |
| 2 | Åland United W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 28 |
| 3 | KuPS W | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | HPS W | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa W | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -23 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK W | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -32 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HJS Akatemia W win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.