· Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Hlinsko vs Turnov Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hlinsko and 2.37 for Turnov, a combined total of 4.24. That distribution gives Turnov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Turnov win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.87 – 2.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hlinsko home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Turnov away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Turnov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 31% / 20% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.87 goals for Hlinsko and 2.37 for Turnov, a combined 4.24 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.4%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–16.0%
Recent form
Hlinsko
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Vykan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 6-0 (W)
Turnov
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Kosmonosy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Turnov | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Dvůr Králové | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Hlinsko | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Vykan | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 2 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -31 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Turnov win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.