· Analysis updated 05:50 UTC
Hlinsko vs Ústí nad Orlicí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Hlinsko and 1.60 for Ústí nad Orlicí, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Ústí nad Orlicí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ústí nad Orlicí win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hlinsko home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ústí nad Orlicí away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Hlinsko
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-04T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 2-3 (L)
Ústí nad Orlicí
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolín · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Hlinsko 1-2 Ústí nad Orlicí (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2026-07-25T08:15:00.000Z · Hlinsko 2-4 Ústí nad Orlicí (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-18T15:00:00.000Z · Hlinsko 0-2 Ústí nad Orlicí (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2023-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · Hlinsko 1-2 Ústí nad Orlicí (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2023-03-25T14:00:00.000Z · Hlinsko 1-3 Ústí nad Orlicí (4. liga - Divizie C)
- 2022-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Hlinsko 0-2 Ústí nad Orlicí (4. liga - Divizie C)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ústí nad Orlicí win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.