· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
HLM vs Guédiawaye Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for HLM and 1.05 for Guédiawaye, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives HLM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guédiawaye away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HLM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for HLM and 1.05 for Guédiawaye, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.9%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
HLM
Guédiawaye
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs DSC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Teungueth · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade de Mbour · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wally Daan · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.