· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
HLM vs La Linguère Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for HLM and 0.78 for La Linguère, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives HLM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
74.8% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Linguère away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HLM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for HLM and 0.78 for La Linguère, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.8%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
HLM
La Linguère
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorée · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wally Daan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AJEL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ouakam · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HLM · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T17:00:00.000Z · HLM 0-0 La Linguère (Ligue 1)
- 2026-01-25T16:30:00.000Z · HLM 0-0 La Linguère (Ligue 1)
- 2025-05-20T17:00:00.000Z · HLM 1-1 La Linguère (Ligue 1)
- 2024-12-22T16:30:00.000Z · HLM 1-2 La Linguère (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.