· Analysis updated 11:51 UTC
HLM vs Pikine Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for HLM and 0.56 for Pikine, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives HLM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HLM win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pikine away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HLM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 28% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for HLM and 0.56 for Pikine, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.8%
- 0–014.2%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
HLM
Pikine
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Essamaye · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Génération Foot · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HLM · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Camberene · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Casa Sport · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Génération Foot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Gorée | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Wally Daan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | HLM | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Guédiawaye | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Diambars | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | AJEL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 9 | Stade de Mbour | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | DSC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 11 | Essamaye | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Casa Sport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 13 | Pikine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Ouakam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | La Linguère | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HLM win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.