Hlučín vs Nový Jičín Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Hlučín and 1.70 for Nový Jičín, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Hlučín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hlučín win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hlučín home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nový Jičín away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hlučín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Hlučín and 1.70 for Nový Jičín, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hlučín win45%

Draw21%

Nový Jičín win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.4%
2–18.4%
1–27.1%
2–27.1%
3–15.6%

Recent form

Hlučín

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nový Jičín · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stonava · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pustá Polom · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Valašské Meziříčí · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 1-0 (W)

Nový Jičín

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hlučín · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pustá Polom · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Břidličná · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bospor Bohumín · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bospor Bohumín	11	9	0	2	22	27
2	Kravare	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Vratimov	11	8	0	3	7	24
4	Hlučín	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Opava II	11	6	1	4	6	19
6	Jiskra Rýmařov	11	5	2	4	9	17
7	Stonava	11	5	2	4	3	17
8	Valašské Meziříčí	11	4	4	3	5	16
9	Zabreh	11	4	3	4	1	15
10	Nový Jičín	11	4	3	4	-3	15
11	Frydek-Mistek B	11	4	0	7	-4	12
12	Pustá Polom	11	3	2	6	-6	11
13	Šumperk	11	2	4	5	-3	10
14	Břidličná	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Bílovec	11	2	2	7	-17	8
16	Frýdlant	11	1	0	10	-30	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hlučín win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.