Hlučín vs Pustá Polom Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Hlučín and 0.80 for Pustá Polom, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Hlučín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hlučín win

71.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.30 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hlučín home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pustá Polom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hlučín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Hlučín and 0.80 for Pustá Polom, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hlučín win71%

Draw18%

Pustá Polom win11%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

2–011.9%
1–010.4%
2–19.5%
3–09.1%
1–18.3%

Recent form

Hlučín

2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nový Jičín · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stonava · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pustá Polom · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Valašské Meziříčí · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bílovec · 1-0 (W)

Pustá Polom

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nový Jičín · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hlučín · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bílovec · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Břidličná · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bospor Bohumín · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · Hlučín 4-1 Pustá Polom (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bospor Bohumín	9	8	0	1	22	24
2	Kravare	9	7	1	1	11	22
3	Vratimov	9	7	0	2	7	21
4	Hlučín	9	6	1	2	8	19
5	Stonava	9	5	2	2	8	17
6	Jiskra Rýmařov	9	4	2	3	5	14
7	Nový Jičín	9	4	2	3	1	14
8	Opava II	9	4	1	4	0	13
9	Valašské Meziříčí	9	3	3	3	4	12
10	Zabreh	9	3	2	4	-1	11
11	Pustá Polom	9	3	1	5	-5	10
12	Frydek-Mistek B	9	3	0	6	-5	9
13	Šumperk	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	Břidličná	9	2	1	6	-9	7
15	Bílovec	9	1	2	6	-13	5
16	Frýdlant	9	0	0	9	-30	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hlučín win, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.