HNK Cibalia vs Dugopolje Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for HNK Cibalia and 1.00 for Dugopolje, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives HNK Cibalia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HNK Cibalia home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dugopolje away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Cibalia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for HNK Cibalia and 1.00 for Dugopolje, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

HNK Cibalia win38%

Draw30%

Dugopolje win33%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–113.5%
0–012.2%
0–112.2%
2–07.4%

Recent form

HNK Cibalia

2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dugopolje · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Sesvete · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kustosija · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 1-1 (D)

Dugopolje

2026-10-11T10:45:00.000Z · H vs Croatia Zmijavci · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs HNK Cibalia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb U21 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Segesta Sisak · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Ždralovi · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First NL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia Zmijavci	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Segesta Sisak	10	5	2	3	4	17
3	Bsk Bijelo Brdo	10	5	2	3	3	17
4	Jadran LP	9	4	4	1	5	16
5	HNK Cibalia	10	4	4	2	0	16
6	Orijent 1919	10	4	3	3	1	15
7	Opatija	10	4	2	4	0	14
8	Mladost Ždralovi	9	4	2	3	-1	14
9	Karlovac 1919	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Kustosija	10	3	4	3	0	13
11	Dinamo Zagreb U21	10	4	0	6	0	12
12	Sesvete	10	3	2	5	0	11
13	Dubrava Zagreb	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Vukovar	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Dugopolje	10	2	4	4	-2	10
16	Hrvace	10	2	2	6	-7	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.