· Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
HNK Gorica vs Bravo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for HNK Gorica and 1.30 for Bravo, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Bravo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Gorica home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bravo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bravo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 27% / 28% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.30 for Bravo, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Uskok Klis · 3-1 (W)
Bravo
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Mura · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.