Gradski stadion Velika Gorica · Referee Filip Dragasevic, Croatia · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for HNK Gorica and 1.80 for NK Varazdin, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives NK Varazdin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NK Varazdin win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Gorica home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NK Varazdin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.4%
- 0–211.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.9%
Recent form
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 2-2 (D)
NK Varazdin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Osijek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-03T16:15:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2026-03-04T16:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 3-1 NK Varazdin (Cup)
- 2026-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-2 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2025-10-19T16:15:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-3 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2025-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2025-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 0-0 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2025-01-25T14:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2024-11-14T16:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-1 NK Varazdin (Cup)
- 2024-10-20T16:30:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 1-2 NK Varazdin (HNL)
- 2024-08-03T19:00:00.000Z · HNK Gorica 0-0 NK Varazdin (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NK Varazdin win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.