Stadion Poljud · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.55 for HNK Gorica, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split win
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Hajduk Split home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Gorica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 22% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 0.55 for HNK Gorica, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.5%
- 2–015.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–09.0%
Recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vardarac · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-0 (W)
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Hajduk Split win, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.