Stadion Poljud · Referee Ivan Vukančić, Croatia · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.35 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Hajduk Split home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.35 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-3 (L)
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | NK Slaven Belupo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Rudes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Hajduk Split win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.