Stadion Poljud · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC
HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.63 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
HNK Hajduk Split to Win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 1–25.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 19% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for HNK Hajduk Split and 1.63 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 73%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
HNK Hajduk Split to Win is the headline pick at 55% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
Raków Częstochowa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.