HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.38 for FC Midtjylland, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives FC Midtjylland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Midtjylland win

50.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

HNK Rijeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Midtjylland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Midtjylland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 22% / 28% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.38 for FC Midtjylland, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

HNK Rijeka win22%

Draw28%

FC Midtjylland win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.6%
1–112.5%
0–011.4%
0–210.7%
1–09.1%

Recent form

HNK Rijeka

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vrbovec · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-1 (D)

FC Midtjylland

2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Odense · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Brondby · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sundby · 7-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-27T18:45:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-20T17:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-2 FC Midtjylland (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Midtjylland win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.