Stadion HNK Rijeka · Referee Igor Pajač, Croatia · Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.83 for Istra 1961, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Istra 1961 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Istra 1961 win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Rijeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Istra 1961 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
HNK Rijeka
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vrbovec · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
Istra 1961
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Gorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagorec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2026-05-17T16:45:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2026-03-15T16:45:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2026-01-20T15:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 2-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-04-19T16:45:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-2 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2025-04-02T18:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 1-0 Istra 1961 (Cup)
- 2025-02-09T14:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 0-1 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 1-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
- 2024-08-18T19:00:00.000Z · HNK Rijeka 4-0 Istra 1961 (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Istra 1961 win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.