Stadion HNK Rijeka · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.28 for NK Varazdin, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives HNK Rijeka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
HNK Rijeka win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Rijeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NK Varazdin away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Rijeka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 21% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.28 for NK Varazdin, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
HNK Rijeka
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vrbovec · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
NK Varazdin
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Aluminij · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Osijek · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Gorica · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagora · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Rijeka win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.