Stadion HNK Rijeka · Referee A. Culina · Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
HNK Rijeka vs Vukovar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.33 for Vukovar, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives HNK Rijeka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
HNK Rijeka win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
HNK Rijeka home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vukovar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Rijeka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.33 for Vukovar, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
HNK Rijeka
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vrbovec · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 1-1 (D)
Vukovar
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Segesta Sisak · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnički Dalj · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mladost Ždralovi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-22T16:15:00.000Z · A vs HNK Hajduk Split · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is HNK Rijeka win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.