· Analysis updated 05:59 UTC
Hồ Chí Minh II vs Binh Dinh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hồ Chí Minh II and 1.63 for Binh Dinh, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Binh Dinh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Binh Dinh win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hồ Chí Minh II home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Binh Dinh away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Binh Dinh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Hồ Chí Minh II and 1.63 for Binh Dinh, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–07.2%
Recent form
Hồ Chí Minh II
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Than Quang Ninh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Bắc Ninh · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-05-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Binh Dinh · 2-3 (L)
Binh Dinh
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Văn Hiến · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hồ Chí Minh II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Dong Thap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Than Quang Ninh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pho Hien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Văn Hiến | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Lam Dong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Long An | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Binh Dinh | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Bóng đá Huế | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Binh Dinh win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.