· Analysis updated 08:46 UTC
Ho Chi Minh vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Ho Chi Minh and 1.08 for Xuan Thien Phu Tho, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Ho Chi Minh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ho Chi Minh win
68.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ho Chi Minh home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Xuan Thien Phu Tho away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ho Chi Minh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Ho Chi Minh and 1.08 for Xuan Thien Phu Tho, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Ho Chi Minh
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phu Dong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-24T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Bóng đá Huế · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Binh Duong · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Song Lam Nghe An · 1-1 (D)
Xuan Thien Phu Tho
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hung Yen · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Bình Phước · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Pho Hien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Văn Hiến | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Dong Thap | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Than Quang Ninh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Binh Dinh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Lam Dong | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Bóng đá Huế | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Long An | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ho Chi Minh win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.