Pleiku Stadium · Analysis updated 06:38 UTC
Hoang Anh Gia Lai vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hoang Anh Gia Lai and 1.97 for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hoang Anh Gia Lai home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 29% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Hoang Anh Gia Lai and 1.97 for Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Hoang Anh Gia Lai
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hai Phong · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nam Dinh · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Binh Duong · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 3-1 (W)
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hai Phong · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Viettel · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bình Phước · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.