DS Arena · Referee P. Gammelholm · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Hobro vs Vejle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hobro and 2.08 for Vejle, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Vejle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vejle win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hobro home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vejle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vejle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Hobro and 2.08 for Vejle, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–27.0%
- 0–16.7%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Hobro
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Fredericia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Kolding IF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HB Koge · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vejle · 0-0 (D)
Vejle
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus Fremad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Aalborg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hvidovre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Horsens · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Fredericia · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Vejle | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Aarhus Fremad | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 6 | Hobro | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 7 | Aalborg | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | HB Koge | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 | Vendsyssel FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vejle win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.