· Analysis updated 06:27 UTC
Hódmezővásárhely vs Dabas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Hódmezővásárhely and 1.33 for Dabas, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Hódmezővásárhely the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hódmezővásárhely win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hódmezővásárhely home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Dabas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.7%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–16.9%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Hódmezővásárhely
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Szeged-Csanád II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasas II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bekescsaba 1912 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 2-2 (D)
Dabas
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Csepel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ESMTK · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs III. Kerületi TUE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 1-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-08-17T15:30:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 0-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2025-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 0-2 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2024-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 2-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2024-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 0-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2023-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 0-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
- 2023-04-16T15:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 1-0 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
- 2022-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 4-0 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
- 2022-02-20T13:00:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 1-0 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
- 2021-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Hódmezővásárhely 1-0 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 36 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Újpest II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Csepel | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Monori Se | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dabas | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 10 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -28 | 8 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hódmezővásárhely win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.