Hodonín vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Hodonín and 1.58 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Frýdek-Místek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Frýdek-Místek win

56.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.77 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hodonín home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frýdek-Místek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frýdek-Místek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 18% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Hodonín and 1.58 for Frýdek-Místek, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hodonín win18%

Draw25%

Frýdek-Místek win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–115.0%
0–211.8%
1–111.6%
0–09.5%
1–29.2%

Recent form

Hodonín

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unie Hlubina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vsetín · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 0-1 (L)

Frýdek-Místek

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
2	Uničov	13	9	2	2	13	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Hranice	13	7	2	4	7	23
6	Sigma Olomouc II	13	7	1	5	6	22
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	13	5	3	5	6	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
12	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
13	Zlín II	13	4	3	6	-6	15
14	Karviná II	13	4	2	7	-4	14
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	13	3	1	9	-16	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	13	2	3	8	-8	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Frýdek-Místek win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.