Hodonín vs Líšeň II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Hodonín and 1.35 for Líšeň II, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Líšeň II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Líšeň II win

51.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hodonín home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Líšeň II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Líšeň II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 21% / 28% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Hodonín and 1.35 for Líšeň II, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Hodonín win21%

Draw28%

Líšeň II win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.5%
1–112.4%
0–012.2%
0–211.2%
1–09.2%

Recent form

Hodonín

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unie Hlubina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vsetín · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hranice · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 0-1 (L)

Líšeň II

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Karviná II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vítkovice · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Uničov	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Líšeň II	13	8	5	0	17	29
3	Frýdek-Místek	14	8	3	3	10	27
4	Zbrojovka Brno II	14	8	3	3	8	27
5	Sigma Olomouc II	14	8	1	5	11	25
6	Hranice	14	7	2	5	5	23
7	Uherský Brod	14	6	3	5	1	21
8	Vítkovice	14	5	4	5	0	19
9	Slovácko II	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Unie Hlubina	13	5	3	5	2	18
11	Zlín II	14	5	3	6	-4	18
12	Hodonín	14	5	2	7	2	17
13	Karviná II	14	5	2	7	-2	17
14	Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	-13	17
15	Havířov	14	2	5	7	-11	11
16	Blansko	14	2	5	7	-14	11
17	Vsetín	14	3	1	10	-18	10
18	Polanka nad Odrou	14	2	3	9	-13	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Líšeň II win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.