· Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Hoffenheim U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Hoffenheim U19 and 1.70 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Hoffenheim U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.8% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mainz 05 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoffenheim U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Hoffenheim U19 and 1.70 for Mainz 05 U19, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 67%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Hoffenheim U19
Mainz 05 U19
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Köln U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Augsburg U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.