· Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Hohenems vs Lochau Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Hohenems and 0.95 for Lochau, a combined total of 4.16. That distribution gives Hohenems the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hohenems win
80.7% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hohenems home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lochau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hohenems to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Hohenems and 0.95 for Lochau, a combined 4.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 4–06.9%
Recent form
Hohenems
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lauterach · 3-1 (W)
Lochau
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lustenau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Imst · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SK St. Johann · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wolfurt · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Swarovski Tirol II · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Imst | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | Schwaz | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Swarovski Tirol II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | SK St. Johann | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Röthis | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Fügen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Lochau | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Kufstein | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -19 | 7 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hohenems win, at 80.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.