Hohenems vs Schwaz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Hohenems and 1.80 for Schwaz, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Hohenems the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hohenems win

57.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.70 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hohenems home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Schwaz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Hohenems win57%

Draw18%

Schwaz win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals66%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

2–17.3%
2–26.6%
3–16.6%
3–25.9%
1–15.4%

Recent form

Hohenems

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Imst · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitzbühel · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaz · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lauterach · 3-1 (W)

Schwaz

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swarovski Tirol II · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SVG Reichenau · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dornbirn · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rheindorf Altach II · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kufstein · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 3-1 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2026-03-21T14:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 3-1 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2025-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 1-1 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2025-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 2-1 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2024-08-31T15:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 0-2 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2024-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 1-1 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2023-08-04T16:30:00.000Z · Hohenems 3-0 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2020-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 3-1 Schwaz (Cup)
2018-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 2-2 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)
2018-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · Hohenems 4-2 Schwaz (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hohenems	11	9	0	2	17	27
2	Imst	11	8	1	2	15	25
3	Schwaz	11	8	1	2	8	25
4	Dornbirn	11	7	2	2	14	23
5	Kitzbühel	11	7	0	4	9	21
6	Swarovski Tirol II	11	6	1	4	14	19
7	SK St. Johann	11	5	3	3	6	18
8	Röthis	11	5	3	3	2	18
9	Fügen	11	4	1	6	-7	13
10	SVG Reichenau	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Lochau	11	3	2	6	-12	11
12	Kufstein	11	2	4	5	-1	10
13	Lauterach	11	2	3	6	-7	9
14	Lustenau	11	1	4	6	-19	7
15	Rheindorf Altach II	11	1	3	7	-14	6
16	Wolfurt	11	1	1	9	-19	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hohenems win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.