Stadion Strelnice · Analysis updated 16:50 UTC
Holešov vs Nové Sady Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.68 expected goals for Holešov and 1.08 for Nové Sady, a combined total of 4.75. That distribution gives Holešov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Holešov win
83.6% probability
Expected goals
3.68 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Holešov home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nové Sady away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Holešov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.68 goals for Holešov and 1.08 for Nové Sady, a combined 4.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.7%
- 3–07.2%
- 4–17.1%
- 4–06.6%
- 2–16.3%
Recent form
Holešov
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozlovice · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hluk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Břeclav · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Krumvir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Brumov · 3-3 (D)
Nové Sady
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Kroměříž II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šternberk · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Strání · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bzenec · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Tatran Všechovice · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie E table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Všechovice | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 30 |
| 2 | Strání | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 28 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Slavičín | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | SK Krumvir | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Sokol Lanžhot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 7 | Prostejov B | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Holešov | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Hluk | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Břeclav | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Brumov | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -19 | 7 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -23 | 7 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | Baťov | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -39 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Holešov win, at 83.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.